Donald Trump and Kamala Harris certainly have different approaches and tactics when it comes to their policies on China, but there are some similarities. Both view China as a rival, and we might expect to see them implement similar policy measures such as tariffs, export controls, and subsidies. While the Trump-Vance team focuses on confrontation and isolation in the form of de-coupling, the Harris-Walz team is more likely to strike a balance between competition and cooperation in the form of de-risking. Harris has limited experience with China, but vice-presidential candidate Walz was a teacher in Guangdong and met with human rights activists on a number of occasions.

Trump and Harris both want to ensure that they remain effective global actors when it comes to dealing with China and will take tougher actions if necessary. From that perspective, the USA will probably continue to pursue a hard line against China no matter which team takes over the administration. From China’s perspective, Donald Trump is unpredictable but, in the past, has been open to negotiations. In addition, Trump’s criticism of the established global institutions is partly welcomed in Beijing. China expects more continuity from Kamala Harris, but also a protectionist tariff policy and criticism of human rights violations.

As far as a potential escalation in the Taiwan conflict goes, in the event of a Chinese attack, under Harris the US would certainly defend the island. While Trump has not yet stated clearly how he would react, he has demanded that Taiwan pay the US for protecting it.