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U.S. election on November 3, 2020

What factors will determine the outcome of the 59th Presidential election in the United States?

Read what Freie Universität’s experts from the Otto Suhr Institute for Political Science and the John F. Kennedy Institute for North American Studies have to say about the upcoming Presidential elections. Journalists and other members of the press are welcome to contact the experts directly.

Experts

Professor Tanja Börzel, Professor of Political Science at the Otto Suhr Institute and Spokesperson for the Cluster of Excellence SCRIPTS

“The vote isn’t just about who becomes President. It’s about which party gets to control the Senate. After the election, there could be an overwhelmingly democratic Congress – in the sense that the Democrats, who already dominate the House of Representatives, could win a majority in the Senate. This would be hugely significant, in particular for us Europeans.

If Trump is elected for another term, we will most likely see the USA drift further away from the liberal world order. Only Congress would be able to keep that from happening.”

Prof. Dr. Jessica C. E. Gienow-Hecht, John F. Kennedy Institute for North American Studies, Department of History

“This is a historic election! It touches on familiar issues in US history, but combines them in ways that are completely new. Mudslinging campaigns were common in the nineteenth century – as were populist movements, amateur politicians, and a polarized and polarizing press. The twentieth century saw the subtle, if not convert, expansion of power of the executive branch of government.

The two major political parties have also had their share of narcissistic leaders. Even the overlap of a pandemic and a presidential election in the same year is nothing new. It is the particular mix of archaic remnants from the past with populist politics combined with otherwise contemporary and modern issues that makes this election unique.

The only other election that even comes close was the 1860 presidential election – right before the start of the American Civil War. Whatever happens on November 3, the future depends on how other democratic institutions respond in the aftermath – especially the Supreme Court.”

Professor Sebastian Jobs, John F. Kennedy Institute for North American Studies, Department of History

“The success of any political party in the US depends not just on whether it can mobilize voters, but also on how and whether those voters are able to exercise their democratic right to vote at all. The US systematically disadvantages the poorer sections of society, and its structural racism puts barriers in the way of non-white Americans who want to vote.

So it’s not just a question of whether Joe Biden can win the hearts and minds of Black, Latino and Asian Americans, but whether these groups are able to access the ballot boxes and even of whether their votes are actually counted in the end.”

Professor Markus Kienscherf, John. F. Kennedy Institute for North American Studies, Department of Sociology

“US-American society looks likely to break under the weight of two central contradictions. Social inequality was on the increase even before the coronavirus pandemic and has only gotten worse since. Structural racism isn’t just expressed in the form of police violence against Black people, but is also a major factor in the growing division between rich and poor. The Trump administration is both a symptom and a cause of these developments.

The Trump phenomenon should be viewed as white supremacy’s last stand against the fundamental transformation of America, which is changing not only American culture, but also its demographic structure. From 2040 onward, non-white people will probably make up the majority of the US population.

So for the vote on November 3, two questions are of paramount importance. First, how many white voters are more interested in white supremacy than in democratic institutions? And second, on the flipside, what proportion of the electorate with an African American or Latin American background will turn out to cast their vote?”

Professor Christian Lammert, John. F. Kennedy Institute for North American Studies, Department of Political Science

"The upcoming presidential election will be an important decision for the future and viability of democracy in the United States.

The outcome will be decisive for the way the United States will respond to the deep ideological and partisan polarization of society, extreme inequalities in wealth and incomes and whether citizens trust in the political institutions and actors will rise again."

Professor Max Steinhardt, John. F. Kennedy Institute for North American Studies, Department of Economics

“As in the past, the economic situation in the USA will be key to the election results.

However, the recession caused by the global pandemic is in many ways unprecedented and cannot be compared to previous economic crises.

The failure of the fiscal stimulus package a few weeks back has only served to increase uncertainty. It hasn’t helped Trump’s chances of being re-elected either.”

Professor Lora Anne Viola, John. F. Kennedy Institute for North American Studies, Department of Political Science

“If re-elected, Donald Trump would face even fewer constraints on his controversial foreign policy in a second term. A Biden victory, on the other hand, would initially be a relief for European countries and other allies.

However, a new foreign policy divide has emerged within the Democratic Party and Biden’s policies will ultimately depend on which faction dominates: the 'restorers' who are traditional liberal internationalists and seek to revive the US’ global leadership role, or the 'reformers' who pursue a progressive foreign policy and seek to re-shape the role the US plays on the world stage.

During Biden’s campaign, the reformers have grown in influence, and in the event of a Biden win they are likely to push US foreign policy into new directions.”

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  • John F. Kennedy Institute
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  • North American studies
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